A huge asteroid that was once thought to be heading straight for Earth is actually on course for the Moon, though an impact here could still wreak havoc across the planet. The “city killer” YR4, which is the size of a 10-storey building, was first spotted in 2024 and is said to have a 4.3% chance of smashing into the Moon as early as 2032, according to the NASA Centre for Near Earth Object Studies’ most recent prediction.

According to experts, if the asteroid did make contact with the moon, it would have a similar fallout to an atomic bomb. Scientists believe it would spark a meteor shower that could threaten our satellite systems.

“So, when the odds shifted away from the Earth they shifted towards the Moon, it’s still only 4% – it’s not even 4% [it’s] just about that – it’s almost 1 in 25. That’s enough that you want to pay attention to,” said Australian National University astrologist and cosmologist, Brad Tucker.

There is a possibility that some debris from the impact could enter our atmosphere, putting a number of vital satellites at risk.

“We’re not worried about it hitting the ground because it would be so small our atmosphere would absorb it; there’s actually a worry it may hit all of those satellites that we have going around us and that would cause a problem,” told Sky Australia.

“There could be a massive consequence in relation to them breaking up and creating their own ring of debris. We shouldn’t just think about the Earth in terms of safety, we really must think about the Moon as well.”

Mr Tucker explained that new studies show how a strike with the moon could pull huge amounts of debris into the atmosphere. Once there, it would make it 1,000 times more likely for a satellite to be hit. In the event of a satellite strike, the sudden loss could wreak havoc around the world. Global connectivity would be completely lost, as would navigation systems, financial markets and military operations.

Currently, the asteroid 2024 YR4 is too far away to observe with space or ground-based telescopes. NASA expects to make more observations when the space rock’s orbit around the Sun brings it closer to Earth in 2028. Recent analysis showed it is likely to have been pushed into its current orbit through gravitational interactions with Jupiter.

Infrared observations from the James Webb Space Telescope made in March estimate 2024 YR4 measures 174-220 feet (53-67m). If it were to hit the Moon, it would be the largest space rock to do so in around 5,000 years, according to solar system dynamics expert Dr Paul Wiegert, who said its colossal size means it would easily take out a space station or satellite.