A bombshell draft Pentagon report has revealed that  China expects to be capable of fighting and winning a war against Taiwan by the end of 2027. The report, according to the Telegraph, suggests that Beijing is honing its military options to seize the territory by “brute force,” potentially employing tactics such as launching strikes from as far as 2,000 nautical miles away.

The findings are likely to heighten concerns in Washington, particularly in the wake of a recent top-secret US government assessment that concluded China would emerge victorious in a military conflict with the US over Taiwan. The report states unequivocally that “China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027.”

China has long viewed Taiwan as its own territory and has never ruled out the use of force to “reunify” with the island. The Pentagon report indicates that Beijing is refining its military options to take Taiwan by “brute force,” with one possible approach involving strikes launched from 1,500-2,000 nautical miles away from China’s mainland.

The report warns that “in sufficient volume, these strikes could seriously challenge and disrupt US presence in or around a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.” Despite Beijing’s claims that reports of its military buildup are an attempt to “smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community,” the Pentagon’s findings paint a different picture.

China’s expanding nuclear arsenal

The report also highlights China’s growing nuclear capabilities, noting that the country has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across its three new silo fields. US President Donald Trump has recently hinted at a potential plan to pursue denuclearization with China and Russia, but the report suggests that Beijing shows little interest in such cooperation.

“We continue to see no appetite from Beijing for pursuing such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions,” the report states. While China’s nuclear warhead stockpile remained in the low 600s in 2024, reflecting a slower production rate compared to previous years, the report emphasizes that the country’s nuclear expansion is ongoing.

China’s nuclear stockpile set to surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030

China is on track to possess over 1,000 warheads by 2030, despite its claims of adhering to a “nuclear strategy of self-defence and pursu[ing] a no-first-use policy.” The draft Pentagon report does not specify any potential targets for the newly-placed missiles, and it is important to note that the report’s content may change before its final release.

However, the findings underscore the growing tensions between China and the US, particularly concerning Taiwan’s sovereignty and the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region. The report found that China had likely put in more than 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 ICBMs in silo fields close to China’s border with Mongolia – the latest in a series of silo sites.

US faces uphill battle in potential conflict

China’s significant expansion of its short, medium, and intermediate-range missile arsenal poses a serious threat to the US’s advanced weapons, potentially destroying them before they could reach Taiwan in the event of a conflict.

Last year, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth admitted that “we lose every time” in the Pentagon’s war games against China, warning that the Asian country’s hypersonic missiles could obliterate aircraft carriers within minutes.

As the 2010 New START treaty, the last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms control accord, approaches its expiration date in less than two months, the US faces an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.

Both President Biden and President Trump have sought to engage China and Russia in negotiations to replace the treaty with a three-way strategic nuclear arms control agreement, but progress remains elusive.