Russia has likely suffered more than 400,000 military casualties in each of the past two years as its forces continue costly assaults on the Ukrainian frontline, the UK Ministry of Defence has said. The assessment comes as the conflict approaches its fourth anniversary on February 24, 2026, with total Russian casualties since the invasion began now almost certainly exceeding one million.

In its latest Defence Intelligence update published today, the MoD stated: “Although Russia has consistently suffered high losses since the start of its illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including likely over 400,000 killed and wounded in both 2025 and 2024, urban ethnic Russians continue to make up a disproportionately small share of service members and, consequently, casualties compared to the rest of the population.”

The MoD highlighted a deliberate recruitment strategy that shields politically influential groups. It said: “By focusing recruitment disproportionately in poorer regions, often predominantly inhabited by ethnic minorities, the Russian state apparatus better leverages financial incentives while limiting the impact on urban parts of the Russian population that have higher political activity.”

The update also cited independent Russian media reporting on the detachment of the country’s elite. It stated: “According to the independent Russian media outlet Proekt, less than 1% of Russian government officials have relatives who participated in the illegal invasion.”

Analysts concluded that the Kremlin remains prepared to accept heavy losses provided domestic support holds. The MoD assessed: “President Putin and the Russian top leadership are almost certainly willing to tolerate consistently high losses, provided this does not negatively affect public or elite support for the war.”

Fighting remains intense along several sectors of the 1,000-kilometre frontline, particularly around Pokrovsk in Donetsk oblast, where Russian forces have mounted repeated infantry-led assaults in recent weeks.

Ukrainian military sources report that poor winter weather has reduced the effectiveness of drones, allowing Russian troops to mass for attacks at higher cost.

Independent casualty verification projects, including those run by Mediazona and BBC Russian, have publicly confirmed more than 150,000 named Russian deaths by late 2025. Western intelligence estimates, which include wounded and missing, place the overall figure far higher.

The MoD’s analysis indicates that Russia has effectively rebuilt its ground forces multiple times since 2022 through aggressive recruitment, prisoner enlistment, and foreign mercenaries, but at the price of concentrating losses among economically disadvantaged and ethnic minority communities.

In major cities such as Moscow and St Petersburg, public life continues largely undisturbed, with no widespread protests against the war despite its duration and cost.

The strategy, the update suggests, has enabled the Kremlin to sustain offensive operations into a fourth year while minimising political risk at home.