The escalating conflict in the Middle East has sparked what experts fear is the worst oil supply crisis ever, prompting calls for people to “work from home where possible” globally and warnings of “more and more severe” blackouts ahead. The war has choked the Strait of Hormuz—the lifeline for 20 million barrels per day, about 20% of world oil—almost completely since late February 2026, following intensified US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran that escalated into open hostilities.

Tanker movements have dropped more than 90%, compelling Gulf producers (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar) to slash production by at least 10 million barrels daily as storage tanks fill and exports stall. This shock, the largest in oil market history and eclipsing the 1973 embargo, has propelled crude prices above $100 per barrel, with diesel, jet fuel, and LPG facing even fiercer increases. Brent crude has oscillated in the $95–$105 range through mid-March 2026 amid wild swings and fears of prolonged disruption.

IEA member countries responded on March 11 by releasing 400 million barrels from emergency reserves—the biggest drawdown ever—to soften the blow. But Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasised that supply actions alone cannot bridge the gap.

Fatih Birol said: “The war in the Middle East is creating a major energy crisis, including the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” Fatih Birol added: “In the absence of a swift resolution, the impacts on energy markets and economies are set to become more and more severe.”

The agency’s new report today presents ten proven, fast-acting demand-side measures, centred on road transport (45% of global oil demand) but also covering aviation, cooking fuels, and industry. Governments should drive adoption through policy, regulation, incentives, and focused aid for vulnerable households, avoiding indiscriminate subsidies.

Key actions include working from home where possible to cut commuting fuel use for eligible jobs and lowering highway speed limits by at least 10 km/h to save fuel in cars, vans, and trucks. They also suggest encouraging public transport use, car sharing, eco-driving, and efficient freight practices.

Furthermore, applying number-plate rotation schemes in large cities reduces congestion and consumption. To ease jet fuel strain, limiting non-essential air travel is advised. Shifting LPG from transport back to essential cooking and promoting electric alternatives is vital, as is permitting industry to switch petrochemical feedstocks and deploy quick efficiency gains.

If widely implemented, these steps would meaningfully reduce costs, relieve market pressure, and protect fuels for critical needs until Hormuz flows resume. Several Asian and European nations have already introduced work-from-home rules, shortened weeks, school closures, and price controls in line with the IEA’s suggestions.

Fatih Birol highlighted active diplomacy with major producers and consumers. Absent quick de-escalation, the crisis risks spiralling inflation, supply-chain breakdowns, fuel rationing, and widespread blackouts.

Reopening secure transit through the Strait remains essential, yet immediate, aggressive demand reduction is the most effective shield against intensifying energy chaos and economic damage.