Mystery traders pocketed millions of pounds after placing hundreds of millions in bets on falling oil prices and rising stocks — just 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced he was postponing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and claimed productive talks with Tehran. Market data reviewed by the BBC revealed an extraordinary spike in trading volume on the New York Mercantile Exchange early Monday.

At 6:49am ET, traders executed 734 WTI crude oil contracts. One minute later, the number surged to 2,168 — a notional value of about £131 million ($170 million). Brent crude saw a similar frenzy, with volumes jumping from roughly 20 to over 1,650 contracts in minutes, equating to around £115 million ($150 million). Combined oil bets across benchmarks approached £385-460 million ($500-600 million) in a narrow window.

At the same time, heavy buying hit S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 futures, positioning for a stock market rebound. The timing was highly unusual for a quiet pre-market Monday, far exceeding normal volumes at that hour.

Then, at 7.04 am ET, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had held “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Iran toward a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” of hostilities. He ordered the military to delay strikes on Iranian power plants and energy sites for five days. Oil prices plunged as much as 14% in minutes, with WTI dropping toward £65 ($84) a barrel at one point and Brent sliding sharply. Stocks bounced higher.

Traders who bet correctly on the de-escalation signal — shorting oil and going long equities — stood to reap windfall profits.

Mukesh Sahdev, chief oil analyst at XAnalysts, said: “This appears abnormal, for sure. At that time, there were no indications that any serious talks had been taking place between the US and Iran.”

Rachel Winter, a partner at UK wealth manager Killik & Co, added: “There has been some speculation about insider trading. We don’t know if that’s true, but hopefully there will be some sort of investigation.”

The White House told the Financial Times it does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering from insider knowledge.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission declined immediate comment. The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority said it was monitoring markets but deferred to UD counterparts.

Iran quickly denied any negotiations, calling Mr Trump’s claims “fake news” designed to manipulate oil markets. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf accused Washington and Israel of using the narrative to escape a “quagmire”. Oil prices partially recovered later amid the confusion.

Despite the denial, markets clung to de-escalation hopes. On Wednesday, Brent crude fell another 4.2% to £74 ($96.07) a barrel and US crude dropped 3.8% to £68 ($88.89).

Asian shares rallied: Tokyo’s Nikkei surged 3% to 53,806, South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.6%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.9%. U.S. futures were also higher.

The episode unfolded against extreme volatility caused by the Iran conflict. Mr Trump had threatened on Saturday to “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for 20% of global oil and gas — within 48 hours. Markets had plunged on those fears.

This is not the first time unusual betting has preceded major Mr Trump foreign policy moves, but the scale and precision here have intensified calls for scrutiny.

Regulators face pressure to determine whether the trades were based on legitimate analysis or non-public information.