Sea levels around the Canary Islands have risen by roughly 10 centimetres (four inches) over the past three decades, according to fresh scientific research, heightening fears about the impact of climate change. The study, carried out by the Institute of Oceanography and Global Change at the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, analysed satellite measurements and coastal tide-gauge records from January 1993 to December 2022.

The study found that local sea levels are rising at an average rate of approximately 3.5 millimetres per year. Researchers say the trend is not uniform across the archipelago. Natural ocean circulation patterns, such as oceanic eddies – mini whirlpools that spin off large ocean currents and transport heat – can locally reduce or boost sea level rise, complicating efforts to assess the true extent of risk to the popular holiday archipelago’s coast.

The study highlights another concerning issue affecting the two main cities of the Canary Islands, Santa Cruz de Tenerife and Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. Both are experiencing slight land subsidence, making the effective rise in sea level more pronounced, according to Canarian Weekly.

Looking ahead, the scientists used UN climate scenarios to model changes up to 2050. Under the worst-case scenario, sea levels could rise by as much as four centimetres (1.3ft) in Santa Cruz de Tenerife and 36 centimetres (1.2ft) in Las Palmas compared to mid-2000s levels.

That level of rise could present major challenges for port infrastructure, coastal homes and local economies reliant on tourism and maritime trade.

Experts stress that addressing the threat will require urgent planning and adaptation measures to protect communities, ecosystems and vital freshwater resources from flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusion.

The Canary Islands are not the only region facing threats from rising sea levels. Across the globe, rising sea levels driven by climate change are putting coastal communities, major cities and entire nations at risk. One of the most vulnerable areas is Bangladesh, where much of the country sits just a few feet above sea level. Even small increases are already worsening flooding, displacing millions and contaminating drinking water with salt.

In the Pacific, island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands rise little more than a metre above sea level, prompting fears they could become uninhabitable within decades. In Tuvalu, sea levels have risen approximately twice as fast as the global average since the 1990s – at a rate of four millimetres per year. By 2050, up to 90% of the land could be below the high-tide level. Discussions are under way with countries such as New Zealand and Australia regarding potential migration pathways.