China could struggle to mobilise its military in Taiwan as President Xi Jinping continues his purge of top officials, with dozens vanishing over the last four years. The Chinese leader made it his mission to root out corruption in the government after coming to power in 2012 and turned his focus to the upper echelons of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 2023. Recent oustings have included Xi’s top general and childhood friend Zhang Youixa, leading commentators to question whether Beijing has the capabilities to launch its long-feared campaign against Taiwan.

A report released by the China Power Project this week shed light on the extent of the expulsions, with around 101 senior officers vanishing since 2022. Bonny Lin, director of the independent Washington-based research organisation, said: “In the near term, given the significant vacancies it would be incredibly difficult for China to launch military campaigns against Taiwan.”

In an assessment published alongside the findings, he added: “Even below that threshold, there is evidence that the purges have negatively impacted China’s exercises around Taiwan in 2025.”

The research estimated that the sacked officials made up around half of the military’s senior leaders, putting the future of Xi’s mission to unify China with Taiwan, which he claims as its territory, in doubt.

M. Taylor Fravel, a military expert and professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, warned that Xi could struggle to replace the axed officials.

He told the New York Times: “Xi has purged all of these people and, obviously, it’s framed as their lack of loyalty to Xi and to the party.

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“But he also needs expertise to have the military he wants – loyalty as well as expertise – and how will he find those people? That’s going to be harder now.”

While Xi’s task of rooting out corruption is thought to have played a major role in the military cull, the report, compiled by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, suggested that “loyalty and performance issues” also played a part.

Professor Fravel also warned that Zhang Youxia’s removal in January could be just “the first phase” of Xi’s military purge, with “more turbulence to come”.

Despite the risks to China’s military strength, the Chinese leader could view keeping a tight grasp on top officials as crucial to maintaining his authoritarian regime.

Commentator Deng Yuwen suggested the purge was “political, first and foremost”. He told Foreign Policy: “Anti-corruption is just a cloak in which the politics are wrapped.”