With Russia’s conflict in Ukraine having reached its third bloody year, China eyeing Taiwan in the Far East and missile strikes between Israel and Iran in the Middle East potentially escalating into WW3 – the chances of global peace is at its lowest level in decades.

The global economic impact of violence reached $19.97 trillion in 2024, more than the GDP of China that year and equivalent to 11.6% of global GDP, with military expenditure alone accounting for $2.7 trillion.

In fact, the conditions that precede global war are the worst since WWII with 59 conflicts raging across the planet, Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of the the Institute for Economics & Peace who took part in an exclusive interview with The Express.

Coinciding with the release of The 2025 Global Peace Index, which ranks countries by safety, this expert in peace – and war – explained exactly why the planet is so vulnerable to the global trends that mean the world is now at one of its most dangerous points in modern history.

“The concept of ‘forever wars’ is more real than at any stage in history,” he said.

“This year’s Global Peace Index shows that the world is at a critical inflection point with Global Fragmentation dramatically increasing. This is driven by rising middle-level powers, major power competition, and unsustainable levels of debt burdens in the world’s most fragile countries.

“This is leading to a fundamental realignment and a possible tipping point to a new international order, the nature of which still can’t be fathomed.”

Killelea outlined how objective of his report is to highlight the key findings, trends, and new areas of research concerning peacefulness across the world. Given that we are currently experiencing record levels of conflict globally, the report is especially relevant this year, he argues.

“The world is becoming less peaceful overall, and that this is a long-term trend,” he said.

“Peacefulness has deteriorated for 13 of the past 17 years, and 94 countries are now less peaceful than they were when the index was started in 2008. The primary driver of this fall in peacefulness has been the increase in violent conflict. There are now more state-based conflicts than there have been at any point since the end of the second world war.

“The world is becoming more fragmented. Geopolitical fragmentation is now at record levels, as the influence of traditional great powers has fallen and countries divide along regional and economic lines. The influence of ‘middle power’ countries like Turkey, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and India is rising, as these countries becoming more economically powerful.

“Whilst this change is not necessarily bad in and of itself, if international institutions do not adapt to this new reality, conflicts will become harder to solve, and risk escalating even further.”

Killelea cited how the conflict between Israel and Iran is a good example of the current geopolitical environment and ‘the great fragmentation’.

“The US is trying to avoid being drawn into the conflict, in line with the priorities of the new administration, while Israel is very strongly pursuing its own regional objectives – shown in part by recording the largest deterioration on military expenditure (% of GDP),” said Killelea.

“Meanwhile, countries like Russia and China and providing support to Iran.”

Killelea is pessimistic about the chances of the global cost of violence reducing anytime soon.

“We can’t give an exact projection for the coming year,” he said.

“However, given that the vast majority of the economic impact of violence is associated with military expenditure, and that many countries in Europe and elsewhere have pledged to increase defence spending, it’s highly likely that this number will continue to increase, and could well surpass 20 trillion dollars in PPP terms in the next year or so.”