Sir Keir’s personal approval ratings hit an all-time low this month, with a More in Common survey finding that public satisfaction with the Prime Minister fell to -43 the day after a chaotic U-turn on his much-touted benefit cuts. Polling released on the Labour government’s one-year anniversary on July 4 also revealed that Reform UK would sweep to power if an election was held tomorrow, with cabinet members including Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves at risk of losing their seats.

The dismal findings laid bare public dissatisfaction with Labour’s slew of U-turns – including on winter fuel payments and the grooming gangs enquiry – and perceived broken promises, such as its inheritance tax raid on farmers and compensation for WASPI women. Frustration with the current administration appears to have extended all throughout Starmer’s cabinet, with polling from Labour List revealing that the front contender to replace Starmer is not even an MP.

The Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has won the support of 57% of members, polling by Survation for the party-affiliated news website revealed, with over half of respondents listing him as one of their top three contenders and 29% ranking him as their top pick for leader.

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner trailed behind the 2015 Labour leader contender, with 47% putting her in their top three selection and 20% ranking her as their number one choice.

While Rayner appeared to place herself at odds with her cabinet colleagues, after a leaked memo challenged Rachel Reeves’ tax-cutting measures earlier this year, the Housing Secretary could risk alienating her support base through her handling of the Birmingham bin strikes.

The leader of the Unite union, a major Labour donor, warned it could cut ties with the party after describing Rayner’s response to the strikes – through a “refusal to get involved and aiding and abetting the fire and rehire of bin workers” – as “utterly abhorrent”.

Burnham also recently laid out a critique of the government’s handling of welfare reforms, calling on ministers to look to Greater Manchester as an example of “a unifying version of reform”.

“One of the many problems with Whitehall’s approach to welfare reform is trying to solve the complex issue of getting people into work from within the narrow silo of the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) when, in truth, the answers are much more likely to lie outside,” he wrote in The Guardian.

“[In Greater Manchester], we recognise that the barriers to work our residents face are often linked to issues like housing, personal debt and mental health. Consequently, a whole-person, whole-system approach is the only one that stands any chance of working.”

Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said: “If, for whatever reason, the ball came loose from the back of the scrum and Keir Starmer stepped aside, Angela Rayner would be the cabinet frontrunner to take charge. Only the ‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham ranks higher overall.

“Beyond that, the field thins quickly: Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper and Clive Lewis form a distant third tier. Strikingly, Great Offices of State figures like Rachel Reeves and David Lammy barely register, with just 2% of members including Reeves in their top three.”