Juan Pablo Montoya believes that Red Bull have ‘zero chance’ to fight for the 2026 F1 World Championships, and that this was a key factor in their late-season development in 2025. 

The Milton Keynes squad came roaring back after a sub-par first half of the season to finish third in the Constructors’ Championship, ahead of Ferrari. Max Verstappen’s consistency spurred on this comeback, as the Dutchman rattled off 10 consecutive podium finishes, including six Grand victories, to end the year.

Unfortunately for the 28-year-old, his impressive late-season charge wasn’t enough to topple Lando Norris at the top of the Drivers’ Championship standings as the McLaren driver became the 11th British racer to be crowned world champion.

According to former McLaren man Montoya, Red Bull and Verstappen could pay the price for their resurgence in 2026. Laurent Mekies’ squad will debut their new power units in the first year of the new technical regulations, and will move forward with Helmut Marko after his retirement was confirmed last week.

“I think it was more about how Red Bull kept developing their cars,” Montoya told Grosvenor Casinos. “Red Bull knew that next year they probably have zero chance of being champions. So I think they decided to go all out and try to win this championship.

“McLaren stopped developing their car ages ago. Red Bull kept developing their car and they kept closing the gap. Max did a mega job in qualifying but if the Red Bull wasn’t quicker, he would not have been on pole. The car is better.”

If Montoya’s assessment comes true, Red Bull will be sweating over Verstappen’s future in 2026. The four-time world champion flirted with Mercedes over an exit in 2025 but opted to stay put for next year at least, giving him an opportunity to survey the pecking order at the start of the new technical regulation period.

However, Verstappen has assured his team that simply boasting a faster car will not be enough to lure him in for 2027 and beyond. “For me, it’s not only about F1,” he told BBC Sport. 

“There’s a lot of things that have to come together for me to make a change. Future roles, stuff like that. So if I ever would make a change, of course, it’s a big one for me because this definitely feels like a second family, and that’s not easy to replicate. 

“The change, if I would ever make one, it’s not only because I need a faster F1 car or I need a difference in the environment. There’s a lot of things that are around my F1 career and things that I’m doing outside of F1 that all have to come together.”