The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has left a power vacuum at the top of the country’s theocracy – but celebrations over his removal could be premature. The Ayatollah enjoyed a vice-like grip on the country’s major power centres during his four decades in power. But the 86-year-old’s death on Sunday, following joint US-Israel strikes, threw the future of the Islamic Republic into doubt and increased the risk of regional instability. Khamenei had the final say on all major policies in Iran since 1989, leading the country’s clerical establishment and the Revolutionary Guard. And despite his age at the time of his death, he left no clear successor.

The theocratic leader’s death was celebrated in Iran’s streets and around the world on Sunday, but the “decapitation” doesn’t necessarily mean the dawn of a new, reformed regime supporting greater social freedoms and global cooperation. In fact, his successor will be elected by a body of 88 senior clerics known as the Assembly of Experts, using strict criteria including being male, a cleric with political competence, loyalty to the Islamic Republic and moral authority. Some of the leading contenders could capitalise on the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict to usher in an even blood-thirstier regime.

While family succession is frowned on Iran, following the toppling of its unpopular monarchy in 1979, Mojtaba, 56, the second son of the late supreme leader, has been floated as a frontline candidate to replace his father. He is thought to exert major influence behind the scenes and in the Revolutionary Guard and could emerge as a more militant leader than Khamenei, having studied under the extremist hard-line cleric Ayatollah Taqi Misbah Yazdi. Amid the uncertainty surrounding the joint strikes on Iran over the weekend, however, it is unclear whether Mojtaba was also killed in the strikes targeting his father.

Arafi, 67, is an established Iranian cleric who was a close confidant of Khamenei and serves as deputy chairman of the powerful Guardian Council and head of Iran’s seminary system. The prominent religious figure could take the country to an even harder-line theocratic position as leader, although he may not have the political heft necessary to be accepted as successor.

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Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri

Another extremist religious voice, Mirbagheri, who is in his sixties, is a member of the Assembly of Experts and has been a vocal critic of the West, making it likely he would position Iran in an even more alienated position on the world stage. He has reportedly welcomed the death toll in Gaza by insisting the death of half of the world’s population would be “worth it” to achieve closeness to God.

Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei

Ejei, 69, is a senior Iranian cleric who was appointed as head of the judiciary of the Isalmic Republic by Khamenei in 2021. An immoderate figure aligned closely with the late leader’s regimee, he previously served as minister of intelligence and first deputy chief justice. His succession would likely mean a continuation of Khamenei’s oppressive theocratic hold on power.