The White House insists the US can wrap this up in weeks, without boots on the ground. Trump claims the Mullahs are desperate for a deal. There’s just one problem. Nobody takes him seriously anymore. Tehran says there are no talks. And incredibly, people now trust the evil theocratic regime over Washington. The US and Israel continue to pound Iran, but reports suggest the Americans are running low on key Tomahawk missiles. The clock is ticking, and Trump’s next move is anybody’s guess.

The Strait of Hormuz remains choked, squeezing the world’s most vital oil artery. Oil prices are climbing as reserves are drawn down. Parts of south Asia face food shortages and even starvation as fertiliser shipments are disrupted ahead of planting season. We won’t starve here, but this is still going to hurt.

Petrol prices are rising. Food is getting more expensive. Shoppers are cutting back, bracing for what comes next. And yet, amid all this, one man thinks it’s turning out quite nicely for him. Our prime minister.

Sir Keir Starmer reckon he’s having a good war – by staying out of it. And he may be right. The public has little appetite for another foreign entanglement. They know we’re no longer a serious military power. The Royal Navy once ruled the waves. Today, we struggle to send a single, ageing frigate to protect bases in Cyprus. The French, Spanish and Greek navies had to hold the fort. It’s a national humiliation.

If I was an Argentinian general, I’d be itching to have a crack at the Falklands. Starmer would meekly hand it over, while muttering something about international law. The British public knows this. That’s why we’re happy to keep our heads down. And frankly, we owe Trump nothing after his repeated jibes about our armed forces and aircraft carriers.

Even if this doesn’t end in World War 3, this still ends badly for us. Chancellor Rachel Reeves knows it. She faces demands for tens of billions more on defence, and tens of billions more to shield households from soaring energy costs. After wrecking the public finances, she hasn’t got a penny.

Yet Starmer reckons things are still working out well for him. And as we’ve seen, that’s all he really cares about.

Labour still faces a rout in the May elections. A heavy defeat was expected to trigger a leadership contest, with Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner already on manoeuvres. But neither wants to fire the first shot and risk accusations of disloyalty. Especially now.

Starmer has got one big call right, if partly by accident. And the worse this war gets, the better his decision to duck it will look. He’ll exploit that to the max. While no doubt indulging in a spot of quiet schadenfreude at the expense of Donald Trump.

When the economic shock hits, as it will, the PM has his alibi ready. He’ll blame the Middle East. Then he’ll say it’s no time for party infighting. Not when there’s a war on.

The Iran conflict may finish Donald Trump, as he gets a brutal reality check and even Republicans turn against him. But it could save Keir Starmer. I’m not sure voters will see this as a victory, but he will.