Donald Trump now believes a Russian victory in Ukraine would make the US appear weak in the eyes of China, experts said. It comes after the US president dramatically overrode a Pentagon order to halt deliveries of air defence missiles to Kyiv at a time when Ukraine was suffering its heaviest bombardment since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The Pentagon had justified last week’s announcement to pause deliveries of key weapons systems, including air defence missiles and precision-guided artillery, by citing concerns over dwindling US stockpiles. According to sources, the move was pushed by Pentagon policy chief and noted isolationist Elbridge Colby, and backed by Defence Secretary Pete Hogseth. It was reportedly opposed by many in the Pentagon and caught both Ukrainian officials and NATO allies off guard. Even within the Trump administration, including the State Department, it had not been fully cleared.

Crucially, Trump himself was not consulted, and was said to have been caught “flat footed” by the announcement. He publicly revoked it during a White House dinner with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday night, as Hogseth sat beside him.

“They have to be able to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very hard now,” Trump said, referring to Ukraine’s ongoing pummelling.

Asked Tuesday who had authorised the pause, an irked Trump replied: “I don’t know. Why don’t you tell me?”

He also took aim at Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting he was dragging out a war Trump has repeatedly said he wants to end quickly. His mounting frustration with Putin has grown since April, when he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Pope’s funeral in the Vatican.

Describing a recent phone call with Putin, Trump said: “We get a lot of bull***t – thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth. He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”

Trump also confirmed he was seriously considering a proposal by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham to impose a 500% tariff on imports from countries that continue buying Russian oil. Such a move would hit China and India, both major buyers, and risk triggering wider economic consequences.

Trump’s reversal drew praise from Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who urged him to resist isolationist pressure within his administration.

“This time, the President will need to reject calls from the isolationists and restrainers within his Administration to limit these deliveries to defensive weapons,” McConnell said.

“And he should disregard those at DoD who invoke munitions shortages to block aid while refusing to invest seriously in expanding munitions production.”

The Pentagon is still calculating how many munitions it can spare for Ukraine, with each service and combatant command submitting updated stockpile data this week.

“They are literally still doing the math,” one defence official said, describing a stoplight chart marking munitions as red, yellow or green. Some systems are safe to send – others are approaching critical levels.

Tracking becomes more difficult once weapons are transferred from the Army to regional commands like CENTCOM, even for key assets like Patriot missiles.

The Army has supplied most of the weapons sent to Ukraine, particularly 155mm shells and Patriot interceptors. But production has fallen behind schedule.

A target to produce 100,000 155mm rounds per month by the end of 2025 has slipped to 2026, said Army spokesman Steve Warren. Scaling up Patriot production has also proved harder than expected.

But some observers believe Trump now better understands the wider strategic consequences of a Russian win.

Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that Beijing could not accept a Russian defeat in Ukraine, warning that it would free the US to concentrate its full attention on China.

“The decision to pause deliveries was particularly demolishing for Ukraine, with Russia seizing the opportunity to hit even harder,” said Nathalie Vogel, of the US-based IWP Center for Intermarium Studies. “But it is significant that Pete Hogseth did not inform Trump about it.”

She added: “We are, I think, all of us mistaken if we think Trump doesn’t have a wide-ranging view of what is going on.

“It’s not in the interest of the United States to see Russia prevail in Ukraine, because it sends a message to the Chinese of weakness – that, if the US lets this happen in Ukraine, they will let China do whatever it wants in Taiwan.

“Trump definitely seems to see that now.”